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FTC proposes new merger guidelines

August 21, 2023 Film Industry, News, WGA

The Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice have drafted new [merger guidelines](https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/news/press-releases/2023/07/ftc-doj-seek-comment-draft-merger-guidelines) outlining how the agencies should approach corporate consolidations.

Here are the key points:

1. Mergers should not significantly increase concentration in highly concentrated markets.
2. Mergers should not eliminate substantial competition between firms.
3. Mergers should not increase the risk of coordination.
4. Mergers should not eliminate a potential entrant in a concentrated market.
5. Mergers should not substantially lessen competition by creating a firm that controls products or services that its rivals may use to compete.
6. Vertical mergers should not create market structures that foreclose competition.
7. Mergers should not entrench or extend a dominant position.
8. Mergers should not further a trend toward concentration.
9. When a merger is part of a series of multiple acquisitions, the agencies may examine the whole series.
10. When a merger involves a multi-sided platform, the agencies examine competition between platforms, on a platform, or to displace a platform.
11. When a merger involves competing buyers, the agencies examine whether it may substantially lessen competition for workers or other sellers.
12. When an acquisition involves partial ownership or minority interests, the agencies examine its impact on competition.
13. Mergers should not otherwise substantially lessen competition or tend to create a monopoly.

These are good principles! Notably, they’re not obsessed with whether a merger is likely to raise prices for consumers. Rather, they look more broadly at how consolidation impacts all the components of an industry.

The FTC has invited public comment on these draft guidelines. As of today, there are over 1,000 comments. The WGA has encouraged its members to [share their experiences](https://secure.everyaction.com/FsY4lF9SsEmjHM4YWKB7lA2). Citizens working in every industry should write in as well. Mergers affect all of us, and these policies could shape the next few decades.

I submitted my comment today. Here’s what I wrote.

—

I’m a screenwriter and novelist who has seen firsthand the impact of mergers and consolidation in the film and publishing industries. That’s why I’m writing in support of the FTC and DOJ’s Draft Merger Guidelines. We need to revive and rethink antitrust enforcement in this country so that it recognizes consolidation’s impact on workers, sellers, consumers and citizens.

My work as a screenwriter has found me working for both Disney (including 2019’s *Aladdin*) and what remains of Fox (where I currently have a series in development). I believe Disney should never have been allowed to buy 21st Century Fox in 2019. Not only did it increase concentration and reduce competition for consumers, it did the same for writers. This issue is addressed in Point 11 of your draft guidelines: “When a merger involves competing buyers, the agencies examine whether it may substantially lessen competition for workers or other sellers.”

When Disney bought Fox, it came at the immediate cost of redundant employees’ jobs. It then created downward pressure on the wages throughout the industry, with one less buyer for the services of writers, directors, actors and crew.

I can offer a specific example from my own experience. In 2018, Fox brought me in to meet on a high-profile book adaption for their Fox Family division. By the time it came to make my writing deal, the proposed Disney merger was announced and the division wasn’t allowed to pursue any project that might compete with Disney’s own. All of the executives on the project were let go.

In the process of Hollywood development, projects disappear and executives get fired all the time. What was unique is how this merger broke so many pieces simultaneously, from studio feature films to indies to cable to broadcast television. We should consider not just the immediate negative impact, but also the after effects. Tom Rothman, who used to run Fox’s film division, noted that “Consolidation under giant corporate mandates rarely promotes creative risk-taking. And in the long run, it is always a challenge to compete against horizontal monopolistic power.”

I also work as an author, with three books published by Macmillan and an upcoming book published by Crown (Penguin Random House). Consolidation in the industry means that 60% of books published in English come from just five publishers, and we nearly dropped to four. They have unprecedented control over the market, limiting options for retailers, authors and readers.

I’m a proud member of the Writers Guild of America, West, and have served on both its board and negotiating committee. The entertainment industry’s history of unchecked consolidation is a major factor in the strike of 11,500 writers including myself on May 2 against our employers, who collectively negotiate our three year contract as the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP). SAG-AFTRA has joined us on strike, their 170,000 members seeking a contract that fairly compensates us for the value we create.

It is essential that antitrust agencies consider how any future proposed mergers in this industry — such as the long-rumored Apple/Disney deal — would impact writers and other industry workers. It’s not enough to wait and see; antitrust agencies should proactively investigate and announce decisions, so CEOs don’t propose deals that paralyze the industry.

These Draft Merger Guidelines are the solid principles we need to maintain a vibrant, competitive environment that serves all Americans.

Thank you for the consideration of my comments.

—

You can submit your own comment on the FTC’s [public comment page](https://www.regulations.gov/commenton/FTC-2023-0043-0001).

The One with Patton Oswalt

Episode - 589

Go to Archive

February 28, 2023 Books, Film Industry, Scriptnotes, Talk, Transcribed

John and Craig welcome comedian, actor, writer and Jeopardy! champion Patton Oswalt to discuss joke structure and building standup specials. Patton pulls back the curtain on his writing process, how he develops a comedic premise, and earning an audience’s trust.

We also dissect M.O.D.O.K., punching up other people’s scripts, and the art of adaptation. We then answer a listener’s question about writing films that include standup comedy.

In our bonus segment for premium members, we discuss characters who keep secrets for no reas– there’s no time to explain!

Links:

* [Patton Oswalt](https://pattonoswalt.com/) on [IMDb](https://www.imdb.com/name/nm0652663/), [Twitter](https://twitter.com/pattonoswalt) and [Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/pattonoswalt/)
* [“Wackity Schmackity Doo!” from Patton Oswalt’s Werewolves and Lollipops](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stuFuQOaHzM)
* [Animation of Patton’s “Christmas Shoes” joke](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iq10bz3PxyY)
* [“The Ham Incident” from Patton Oswalt’s Finest Hour](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOyAlOWPuoY)
* [M.O.D.O.K.](https://www.hulu.com/series/202e4b17-c57e-4a2d-9c1d-342e3a092a22) on Hulu
* [Silver Screen Fiend](https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Silver-Screen-Fiend/Patton-Oswalt/9781451673227) by Patton Oswalt
* [Clinical Practice Guideline for the Evaluation and Treatment of Children and Adolescents With Obesity](https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/151/2/e2022060640/190443/Clinical-Practice-Guideline-for-the-Evaluation-and?autologincheck=redirected) by the American Academy of Pediatrics
* [Dracula: The Evidence](https://shop.beehivebooks.com/products/dracula) by [Beehive Books](https://beehivebooks.com/)
* [Melanie Lynskey answers questions for Dear Prudence](https://slate.com/human-interest/2023/01/melanie-lynskey-dear-prudence-advice-week.html)
* [Murderers’ Row – Melanie Lynskey](https://vimeo.com/244123581) by Scout Tafoya
* [The Unloved](https://www.rogerebert.com/mzs/the-unloved-part-110-tank-girl) by Scout Tafoya for RogerEbert.com
* [Get a Scriptnotes T-shirt!](https://cottonbureau.com/people/scriptnotes-podcast)
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* [Gift a Scriptnotes Subscription](https://scriptnotes.supportingcast.fm/gifts) or [treat yourself to a premium subscription!](https://scriptnotes.supportingcast.fm/)
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* [John on Instagram](https://www.instagram.com/johnaugust/?hl=en)
* [John on Mastodon](https://mastodon.art/@johnaugust)
* [Outro](http://johnaugust.com/2013/scriptnotes-the-outros) by Timothy Lenko ([send us yours!](http://johnaugust.com/2014/outros-needed))
* Scriptnotes is produced by [Drew Marquardt](https://www.instagram.com/marquardtam/) and edited by [Matthew Chilelli](https://twitter.com/machelli).

Email us at ask@johnaugust.com

You can download the episode [here](http://traffic.libsyn.com/scriptnotes/589Standard.mp3).

**UPDATE 4-11-23** The transcript for this episode can be found [here](https://johnaugust.com/2023/scriptnotes-episode-589-the-one-with-patton-oswalt-transcript).

Which of these answers was written by AI?

January 10, 2023 Tools, Words on the page, Writing Process

[GPTZero](http://gptzero.me/) is a new service created by Edward Tian designed to sniff out AI-generated text.

I’m dubious, in part because I’m not sure I could reliably spot the differences between sentences assembled by humans versus machines. But maybe that’s just my human bias.

As an experiment, I decided to run a quick, not-at-all-scientific test. I asked ChatGPT to “write three paragraphs explaining what a manager does for screenwriters.” I also looked up the answer for [“What does a manager do?”](https://screenwriting.io/what-does-a-manager-do/) on screenwriting.io.

Here are the two responses, one written by a human ((Stuart Friedel wrote most of the early screenwriting.io answers.)), the other by an AI. See if you can spot which is which.

### SAMPLE A
> In brief, a manager manages your career.

> This includes tangible acts, like setting up meetings, giving notes and feedback, and assisting with deal negotiation, as well as the more abstract, like helping steer your career’s direction.

> Managers, unlike agents, are not required to be licensed by the state. They usually have fewer clients than agents, and often take more personal and less business-focused roles in their clients’ careers. Managers, are allowed to take producer credits on their clients movies, which agents are not.

> Like agents, a manager typically receives 10% of a client’s earnings. A manager should never ask for an upfront or flat fee.

### SAMPLE B

> A manager for a screenwriter plays a vital role in helping the writer navigate the film and television industry. They can assist with finding and developing new ideas, as well as helping the writer shape their existing ideas into marketable concepts. This often involves providing feedback and suggestions to help improve the story and make it more appealing to potential buyers.

> Managers also help screenwriters with the business side of things, such as identifying potential buyers and pitching the writer’s work to them. They can also help negotiate deals and contracts, as well as manage any legal issues that may arise. In addition, they can help the writer navigate the many different players in the industry, such as agents, producers, and studio executives.

> Finally, a manager can also help screenwriters with their long-term career goals by helping them identify opportunities for growth and advancement. This might include working on larger projects, transitioning to other forms of media, or developing a personal brand to increase their visibility and credibility in the industry. Overall, a manager plays a critical role in helping a screenwriter achieve success in the competitive film and television industry.

For each answer, GPTZero measured the text’s Perplexity — the randomness of the text — across several ranges.

| | Total | Average | Highest |
|———-|——-|———|———|
| Sample A | 41 | 136 | 219 |
| Sample B | 11 | 36 | 49 |

That 219 is an example of “Burstiness,” which GPTZero defines as “spikes in perplexity.” For Sample A, the opening sentence has a perplexity of 219, whereas highest perplexity in Sample B is just 49.

That’s the tell, apparently.

> Some human written sentences can have low perplexities, but there is bound to be spikes in perplexity as the human continues writing. Contrastingly, perplexity is uniformly distributed and constantly low for machine generated texts.

After crunching the numbers, GPTZero renders its verdict.

SAMPLE A (score 66.44):
Your text is likely human generated!

SAMPLE B (score 9.93):
Your text is most likely to be AI generated!

On both counts, GPTZero got it correct.

But how hard would it be to fool the system? I spent two minutes editing the AI-generated version into the following:

### Sample C
> Managers can play a vital role for screenwriters. Basically, they help the writer navigate the film and television industry. They can assist with finding and developing new ideas, or shaping their existing ideas. They provide feedback and suggestions.

> Managers also help screenwriters with the business side of things: who the buyers are and how to pitch to them. They can help negotiate deals and contracts, as well as manage any legal issues that may arise. They help the writer navigate the many different players in the industry, including as agents, producers, and studio executives.

> Good managers think about screenwriters’ long-term career goals. This might include working on bigger (or smaller!) projects, transitioning to other forms of media, or developing a personal brand. Overall, a manager can play an important role in helping a screenwriter achieve success in the competitive film and television industry.

| | Total | Average | Highest |
|———-|——-|———|———|
| Sample A | 41 | 136 | 219 |
| Sample B | 11 | 36 | 49 |
| Sample C | 19 | 106 | 439 |

The verdict:

SAMPLE C (score 118.77):
Your text is likely human generated!

## Some takeaways

– The ChatGPT answer was well-written and potentially helpful for someone who didn’t know anything about managers.
– GPTZero is looking for patterns a human likely wouldn’t notice, which makes sense. But an AI model trained to provide responses with high perplexity and burstiness would likely evade detection. It’s interesting to see this arms race play out, because adversarial networks are already a fundamental tool in AI.
– It’s currently very easy to fool GPTZero with just minimal rewriting. If this tool meant to detect AI-generated term papers, students will quickly learn how to evade it.

Whither Westworld

December 13, 2022 Asides, Film Industry, Television

Like most writers, I’m trying to understand these [wild moves at HBO Max](https://www.vulture.com/article/hbo-max-removing-shows-movies-list.html).

Cancelling Westworld? Sure. Happens all the time. That’s TV.

Ditching an unaired season you’ve already shot, like what [just happened to Minx](https://variety.com/2022/tv/news/minx-canceled-hbo-max-season-2-1235458073/)? That’s heartbreaking, but I guess not unprecedented after Batwoman.

[Pulling Westworld off the service](https://deadline.com/2022/12/westworld-the-nevers-pulled-hbo-max-canceled-1235197233/) is just bonkers to me. My only guess is that they’re going to stick it on an ad-based service with a different residual formula.

Makes it hard to want to make a show for HBO Max.

I mistakenly titled this post “Wither Westworld” instead of “Whither Westworld” and both work.

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