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Follow Up

Cablevision and the Supreme Court

July 2, 2009 Film Industry, Follow Up, Television

In January, I wrote about [Cablevision and the Infinite TiVo](http://johnaugust.com/archives/2009/cablevision-and-the-infinite-tivo), a plan by a cable operator to shift recording of TV shows from users’ boxes to a central server:

> Cablevision wants to offer DVR as a service instead of a device. Rather than recording 30 Rock on the box attached to your TV, the show will be recorded at Cablevision’s headquarters. Then, when you want to watch it, Cablevision will send the show to your television. If it works right, it should feel just like a normal DVR. Only without the cost of the DVR.

I thought it sounded great if you were a consumer, or Cablevision. And pretty damn bad if you were a copyright holder, or someone who produced content. Like, say, a screenwriter.

> Cablevision’s RS-DVR is back-door video-on-demand. They’re trying to offer the networks’ output to their customers on their own terms, without paying any additional fees.

The U.S. Supreme Court disagrees. Sort of.

Today, it [refused to hear an appeal](http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20090629-711145.html) on the Cablevision case, allowing the Second Circuit Court’s decision to stand. Cablevision can begin introducing its service.

In a brief to the Supreme Court, the U.S. Solicitor General’s office had already urged the Court to skip this case, [rather than risk bad precedents:](http://www.techlawjournal.com/topstories/2009/20090529.asp)

> Network-based technologies for copying and replaying television programming raise potentially significant questions, but this case does not provide a suitable occasion for this Court to address them.

> The parties’ stipulations, moreover, have removed two critical issues — contributory infringement and fair use — from this case. That artificial truncation of the possible grounds for decision would make this case an unsuitable vehicle for clarifying the proper application of copyright principles to technologies like the one at issue here.

If Cablevision’s service really is *exactly* analogous to a conventional DVR — a giant farm with one hard drive per customer, recording shows only a time-forward basis (no reaching back to record last week’s 30 Rock) — then it’s pretty easy to use the metaphor of a very long hard drive cable. A different case, or a more ambitious service, would offer a better venue for figuring out what role a middleman can play in offering content to consumers.

I don’t think consumers really want a virtual DVR. They want content. They want to watch whichever TV show they want, whenever they want it. And they should be able to.

As I said in my first article:

> The studios should then negotiate with Cablevision and all the other cable and satellite providers to roll out a system that calls this service what it really is: video-on-demand. A consumer should be able to watch (or record in their home) an episode when it’s first broadcast, or get it through VOD for a fee. That fee should be low, cheap enough to make it an appealing alternative to piracy.

Per-screen average

June 30, 2009 Film Industry, Follow Up, Projects, The Nines

As often happens in comment threads, the discussion for my post [A hard time to be an indie](http://johnaugust.com/archives/2009/hard-indie) focused less on the original article and more on the observations of a single commenter. In this case, [Rebecca](http://johnaugust.com/archives/2009/hard-indie#comment-171902):

> I’ve always wondered why the movie Lars and the Real Girl wasn’t released more widely. I only read rave reviews about it and everyone I know who saw it loved it. I thoroughly enjoyed it. They didn’t even release it widely enough to make a profit, the dumbasses.

> Here are the numbers:

> The movie had a $12,000,000 budget. [According to boxofficemojo.com](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=larsandtherealgirl.htm), it made $90,418 opening weekend in 7 theaters for a $12,916 average per theater.

> The Proposal opened this past weekend in 3056 theaters and grossed $33,627,598 for an average of $11,004 per theater.

> At 5 weeks, Lars and the Real Girl averaged $2,456 per theater after the number of theaters was reduced from its peak the week before.

> The latest Night at the Museum, just averaged $2,636 this week, its 5th.

> It looks to me like decent marketing in various markets, in conjunction with a much wider release, could have made this movie -– and everyone involved with it -– a LOT more money. Can you explain why it would not have made sense to release it into more than 321 theaters during its entire run? Other than thinking that challenging, quirky and maddening = noncommercial, I mean?

Apples, meet oranges.

Per-screen average is simply math: a given film’s box office divided by the number of screens it plays on. ((And even then, it’s a messy measurement. Particularly with wide releases, theaters can increase or decrease the number of screens devoted to a picture even over the course of a weekend, based on demand and sell-outs.)) As a pure number, it tells you nothing about the size of theater, the percentage of seats sold, or what would be typical for that theater on that night.

Bringing in $2,300 over a weekend might be a great haul at a tiny theater in Des Moines, but would be a disaster at Grauman’s Chinese.

The number is only useful when comparing movies in fairly similar situations. If The Happy Harpist made $44,000 at four theaters, and My Third Elbow made $10,000 at three, it’s fair to say that Harpist is outperforming Elbow with an $11,000 per-screen average.

But drill deeper, and you might find reasons why Harpist’s numbers are misleading. For example, it’s possible Harpist made $34,000 on one of its screens, and only $10,000 on the other three. Maybe it’s a hometown director, or other special circumstance. ((Or maybe it’s The Nines. We debuted on two screens — one in New York, one in LA. Two-thirds of our money came from LA’s NuArt.)) Take away that one theater, and Harpist and Elbow are now a dead heat.

More importantly, if you’re one of the low-performing theaters for Harpist, *your* per-screen average is only $3,333. You will make your decisions about whether to keep playing the movie based on that number. Never forget that distributors don’t ultimately decide which movies stick around in theaters; the exhibitors do. They look at their internal numbers to decide which movies will make them the most money.

**With a small number of screens, per-screen average is hugely affected by variations between individual venues.** The denominator — which screens, and where — matters a lot.

Conversely…

**With a big number of screens, per-screen average is relatively unaffected by variations between individual venues.** If you’re playing in 4,000+ screens, it doesn’t matter nearly as much which screens those are. You’re a wide release, playing at every other megaplex in the country. Distributors desperately scramble to get as many good screens as they can, simply so they can generate as much money as they can. Per-screen average is the last thing on their mind.

Some movies are able to successfully platform (expand) from a few screens to a lot. Juno, for example. But if you look at Juno’s [weekend boxoffice breakdown](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=juno.htm), you’ll see that it never came close to its opening weekend $59,124 per-screen average again. As it climbed to 2,000 screens, the per-screen average plummeted because the denominator had gotten so big. Trust me: Fox Searchlight didn’t care. They were too busy making gobs of money.

Same for The Proposal. Same for Night at the Museum 2. Unlike the makers of Lars and the Real Girl, who carefully selected each of the seven venues it debuted upon — like Goldilocks, not too big, not too small — the studios releasing blockbusters want as many seats as possible. They’re not looking to expand. They don’t need to nurture. They simply want the maximum amount of money, preferably in the shortest amount of time.

Rebecca points to the fifth weekend of Night at the Museum 2 and its $2,636 per-screen average. She conveniently omits that on that weekend it earned $7.8 million. **Money is money. Per-screen average is just a figure.**

Back to Lars
—–

While it’s absolutely fair to play Monday morning quarterback on a movie you love and believe could have made more money, the folks who released Lars and the Real Girl are not dumbasses. You can disagree with their marketing and perhaps their release date. I wouldn’t be surprised if the filmmakers feel disappointed. But they clearly tried to platform the movie much like Juno, and it didn’t work.

Courtesy Box Office Mojo, here are the [numbers for Juno](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=juno.htm):

juno box office

And here’s [Lars](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=weekend&id=larsandtherealgirl.htm):

juno box office

Both Juno and Lars started in three theaters, then expanded to 300 in their third week. But Juno far out-earned Lars at every step. By the time it went wide, Juno also had the advantage of the Christmas holiday.

As you’re looking at the Lars chart, rather than focusing on the per-screen average, look at the red numbers in the % Change column. Starting with Nov 2-4, it was making less each week. It was on a decline. The distributor couldn’t justify the millions of dollars it would take to expand the run when it was earning a fraction of that each week.

In the end, Lars and the Real Girl made just under $6 million domestically. Many indies would love to reach that number.

Could Lars have made more money? Perhaps with a different combination of marketing and luck. But per-screen average has nothing to do with it, and using that figure to compare it to wide releases is specious. Limited releases have high per-screen averages *because* they’re on so few screens, not despite it.

NPR on Twitter and The Variant

June 18, 2009 Follow Up, News, Projects, The Variant

NPR’s All Things Considered has a piece tonight by Alex Cohen about how artists use Twitter, including me with my short story [The Variant](http://johnaugust.com/variant).

If you missed it, you can catch the clip [in the archives](http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=105620633), or download it [here](http://public.npr.org/anon.npr-mp3/npr/atc/2009/06/20090618_atc_08.mp3?dl=1).

The “test screenings” I did with The Variant were hugely helpful, and led to some significant trim and changes, including the title and the very first sentence.

If you’d like to read that early feedback, I’ve unlocked the password protection so you can see their comments on [the first draft](http://johnaugust.com/variant/the-egyptian-variant) and the [revised version](http://johnaugust.com/variant/the-variant). (Obviously, both links are chock full of spoilers.)

Greeks

June 4, 2009 Follow Up, Projects

Many thanks to the 43 readers who [added reviews](http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0029ZAPRW) at Amazon. Here’s the scene I [promised yesterday](http://johnaugust.com/archives/2009/40-reviews-in-24-hours).

This comes from Greeks, a comedy I never finished — and barely started, honestly. It’s set in ancient times, and would have retold several of the great myths in significantly less epic ways. I set it aside to write The Nines and never went back to it.

Most writers will have a few dozen folders with these kinds of half-conceived projects. Both The Nines and [The Variant](http://johnaugust.com/variant) lived in those folders for years. In fact, the working title for The Variant was The Nines. Vincent Lewis kept seeing the number nine everywhere, which was one reason he started wondering if something was off with this world.

But back to Greeks.

EXT. CYPRESS GROVE – DAY

Lunch. Sacriticides’ class has broken into distinct cliques: wrestlers, poets, the drama club. Being his first day, Perseus isn’t sure where he belongs, so he keeps on the periphery.

He finds a suitable sitting rock and unwraps his bread, grapes and olives. He notices Abbas is not seated with any particular group as he rips into lunch -- a single pomegranate, its bloody juices dripping everywhere.

Perseus decides to risk conversation...

PERSEUS

Pomegranate, huh?

ABBAS

Yeah.

PERSEUS

Grapes.

(shows fingers)

Less evidence.

ABBAS

Yeah.

And that’s that, apparently. Perseus goes back to his lunch.

But then Abbas suddenly restarts the conversation.

ABBAS

(introducing himself)

I’m Abbas.

PERSEUS

Perseus.

ABBAS

Anyone call you Percy?

PERSEUS

No. So how long have you been studying with Sacriticides?

ABBAS

Since my dad died.

PERSEUS

Oh. Sorry.

ABBAS

Yeah, well. Philosophy is sort of the family business. My dad invented logic.

PERSEUS

That’s pretty major.

ABBAS

He got eaten by a lion. He was trying to teach it ethics.

(beat)

So, after class, a bunch of us are going down to the beach. New school of mermaids are coming through.

PERSEUS

Oh.

ABBAS

If you wanna...

PERSEUS

I’ll pass.

ABBAS

There’ll be mer-dudes too, if you’re...

PERSEUS

No, I like girls. But with legs.

ABBAS

That’s cool.

PERSEUS

I’ve got a strange thing about the sea. My step-father’s a fisherman and I can’t even eat fish.

ABBAS

Wow. What do think that’s from?

Perseus shrugs it off. Then reconsiders...

PERSEUS

When I was little, my grandfather locked me and my mother in a chest and threw us in the ocean, because he was convinced I was going to kill him. Prophecy and stuff. So we were in this box, and we floated around for three weeks and sort of went mad from dehydration. We washed up on this island, and I’ve never gone back in the water since.

A beat.

ABBAS

Man, I love the ocean. Fish and chicks, it’s all good.

PERSEUS

Definitely. Except for, it’s not. Because of the trauma of my childhood.

ABBAS

(not listening; re: pomegranate)

Perspehone? She ate just one of these seeds. Now she has to spend winter in Hades.

PERSEUS

Actually, she’s my half-sister. We don’t see her much. Big family.

A CHEER in the background. Two of the WRESTLERS are throwing down, Greco-Roman style. Abbas joins in the excitement, running over to them.

PERSEUS

Good talking with...okay.

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