QandA

Over lunch, I wondered aloud how many of the 100 top grossing movies were either sequels or the first film in a franchise.

Take a moment and think about it.

Of the top movies, what percentage are part of a larger franchise? And we’re only looking at theatrical. For this exercise, home video sequels don’t count.

Around the table, guesses ranged from 50 to 83 movies.

The answer is 86. Yes, 86 of the 100 all-time worldwide top-grossing movies are part of a franchise. (See Update 2 below.)

Here is [the list](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/world/):

Rank	Title	Type
1	Avatar	Franchise Origin†
2	Titanic	Single
3	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	Franchise
4	Jurassic World	Franchise
5	Marvel’s The Avengers	Franchise
6	Furious 7	Franchise
7	Avengers: Age of Ultron	Franchise
8	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	Franchise
9	Frozen	Franchise Origin†
10	Iron Man 3	Franchise
11	Minions	Franchise
12	Transformers: Dark of the Moon	Franchise
13	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	Franchise
14	Skyfall	Franchise
15	Transformers: Age of Extinction	Franchise
16	The Dark Knight Rises	Franchise
17	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest	Franchise
18	Toy Story 3	Franchise
19	Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides	Franchise
20	Jurassic Park	Franchise Origin
21	Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace	Franchise
22	Alice in Wonderland (2010)	Franchise Origin
23	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	Franchise
24	The Dark Knight	Franchise
25	The Lion King	Single
26	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone	Franchise Origin
27	Despicable Me 2	Franchise
28	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End	Franchise
29	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1	Franchise
30	The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug	Franchise
31	The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	Franchise
32	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	Franchise
33	Finding Nemo	Franchise Origin†
34	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	Franchise
35	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	Franchise
36	Shrek 2	Franchise
37	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	Franchise
38	Spider-Man 3	Franchise
39	Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	Franchise
40	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	Franchise
41	Spectre	Franchise
42	Ice Age: Continental Drift	Franchise
43	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	Franchise
44	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	Franchise
45	Inside Out	Single
46	Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith	Franchise
47	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	Franchise
48	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2	Franchise
49	Inception	Single
50	Spider-Man	Franchise
51	Independence Day	Franchise
52	Shrek the Third	Franchise
53	Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban	Franchise
54	E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial	Single
55	Fast & Furious 6	Franchise
56	Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull	Franchise
57	Spider-Man 2	Franchise
58	Star Wars	Franchise Origin
59	Guardians of the Galaxy	Franchise Origin
60	2012	Single
61	Maleficent	Franchise*
62	The Da Vinci Code	Franchise Origin
63	The Amazing Spider-Man	Franchise
64	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 1	Franchise
65	Shrek Forever After	Franchise
66	X-Men: Days of Future Past	Franchise
67	Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted	Franchise
68	The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe	Franchise
69	Monsters University	Franchise
70	The Matrix Reloaded	Franchise
71	Up	Single
72	Gravity	Single
73	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	Franchise
74	The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1	Franchise
75	Dawn of the Planet of the Apes	Franchise
76	The Twilight Saga: New Moon	Franchise
77	Transformers	Franchise Origin
78	The Amazing Spider-Man 2	Franchise
79	The Twilight Saga: Eclipse	Franchise
80	Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol	Franchise
81	The Hunger Games	Franchise Origin
82	Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation	Franchise
83	Forrest Gump	Single
84	Interstellar	Single
85	The Sixth Sense	Single
86	Man of Steel	Franchise
87	Kung Fu Panda 2	Franchise
88	Ice Age: The Meltdown	Franchise
89	Big Hero 6	Single
90	Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl	Franchise
91	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2	Franchise
92	Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones	Franchise
93	Thor: The Dark World	Franchise
94	Kung Fu Panda	Franchise Origin
95	The Incredibles	Franchise Origin
96	Fast Five	Franchise
97	Hancock	Single
98	MIB 3	Franchise
99	Iron Man 2	Franchise
100	Ratatouille	Single

Films marked † have a sequel in production or very nearly so. Films marked * could be considered single or part of a franchise.

It’s worth taking a closer look at the 14 films that never got a big-screen sequel, and why:

Titanic, 2012, Interstellar, Gravity
You can’t sink the same boat twice. (Or blow up the same planet/shuttle.)

E.T.
There was apparently [talk of a sequel](http://birthmoviesdeath.com/2015/04/13/the-incredibly-ill-advised-e.t.-sequel-that-almost-was) at some point.

Forrest Gump
Eric Roth actually [wrote a sequel](http://www.slashfilm.com/911-killed-the-forrest-gump-sequel/).

The Lion King, Ratatouille, Up, Inside Out, Big Hero 6
There are rumblings of a [Big Hero 6 sequel](http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Big-Hero-6-Sequel-Stan-Lee-Seems-Think-It-Already-Happening-71081.html), and it’s not impossible to imagine big-screen sequels to all of these.

Inception, The Sixth Sense
DiCaprio has never done a sequel. But could you do Inception 2 without him? Sure. And you could do a Sixth Sense sequel without Bruce Willis. I bet we’ll get one of these.

Hancock
Not a hit, not a bomb, but not crying out for a sequel. Also, it’s low enough on the list that it will be knocked off soon.

Whenever you talk about the top-grossing movies, the first question is always, “What about adjusting for inflation?” (Also known as, “What about Gone with the Wind?”)

Fine. Let’s do that.

Here are the top 100 movies of all time, [adjusted for inflation](http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm?sort=year&order=ASC&adjust_yr=2016&p=.htm):

Rank	Title	Year	Type
1	Gone with the Wind	1939^	Single
2	Star Wars	1977^	Franchise Origin
3	The Sound of Music	1965	Single
4	E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial	1982^	Single
5	Titanic	1997^	Single
6	The Ten Commandments	1956	Single
7	Jaws	1975	Franchise Origin
8	Doctor Zhivago	1965	Single
9	The Exorcist	1973^	Franchise Origin
10	Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs	1937^	Single
11	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	2015	Franchise
12	101 Dalmatians	1961^	Franchise
13	The Empire Strikes Back	1980^	Franchise
14	Ben-Hur	1959	Single
15	Avatar	2009^	Franchise Origin
16	Return of the Jedi	1983^	Franchise
17	Jurassic Park	1993^	Franchise Origin
18	Star Wars: Episode I – The Phantom Menace	1999^	Franchise
19	The Lion King	1994^	Single
20	The Sting	1973	Franchise
21	Raiders of the Lost Ark	1981^	Franchise Origin
22	The Graduate	1967^	Single
23	Fantasia	1941^	Single
24	Jurassic World	2015	Franchise
25	The Godfather	1972^	Franchise Origin
26	Forrest Gump	1994^	Single
27	Mary Poppins	1964^	Single
28	Grease	1978^	Franchise Origin
29	Marvel’s The Avengers	2012	Franchise
30	Thunderball	1965	Franchise
31	The Dark Knight	2008^	Franchise
32	The Jungle Book	1967^	Single
33	Sleeping Beauty	1959^	Single
34	Ghostbusters	1984^	Franchise Origin
35	Shrek 2	2004	Franchise
36	Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid	1969	Single
37	Love Story	1970	Franchise
38	Spider-Man	2002	Franchise Origin
39	Independence Day	1996^	Franchise Origin
40	Home Alone	1990	Franchise Origin
41	Pinocchio	1940^	Single
42	Cleopatra (1963)	1963	Single
43	Beverly Hills Cop	1984	Franchise Origin
44	Goldfinger	1964	Franchise
45	Airport	1970	Franchise Origin
46	American Graffiti	1973	Franchise
47	The Robe	1953	Single
48	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest	2006	Franchise
49	Around the World in 80 Days	1956	Single
50	Bambi	1942^	Single
51	Blazing Saddles	1974^	Single
52	Batman	1989	Franchise Origin
53	The Bells of St. Mary’s	1945	Single
54	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	2003^	Franchise
55	Finding Nemo	2003^	Franchise Origin
56	The Towering Inferno	1974	Single
57	Spider-Man 2	2004	Franchise
58	My Fair Lady	1964	Single
59	The Greatest Show on Earth	1952	Single
60	National Lampoon’s Animal House	1978^	Single
61	The Passion of the Christ	2004^	Single
62	Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith	2005^	Franchise
63	Back to the Future	1985	Franchise Origin
64	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	2002^	Franchise
65	The Dark Knight Rises	2012	Franchise
66	The Sixth Sense	1999	Single
67	Superman	1978	Franchise Origin
68	Tootsie	1982	Single
69	Smokey and the Bandit	1977	Franchise Origin
70	West Side Story	1961	Single
71	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone	2001	Franchise Origin
72	Lady and the Tramp	1955^	Single
73	Close Encounters of the Third Kind	1977^	Single
74	Lawrence of Arabia	1962^	Single
75	The Rocky Horror Picture Show	1975	Single
76	Rocky	1976	Franchise Origin
77	The Best Years of Our Lives	1946	Single
78	The Poseidon Adventure	1972	Franchise Origin
79	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	2001^	Franchise Origin
80	Twister	1996	Single
81	Men in Black	1997	Franchise Origin
82	The Bridge on the River Kwai	1957	Single
83	Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen	2009	Franchise
84	It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World	1963	Single
85	Swiss Family Robinson	1960	Single
86	One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest	1975	Single
87	M.A.S.H.	1970	Single
88	Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom	1984	Franchise
89	Avengers: Age of Ultron	2015	Franchise
90	Star Wars: Episode II – Attack of the Clones	2002^	Franchise
91	Mrs. Doubtfire	1993	Single
92	Aladdin	1992	Single
93	Toy Story 3	2010	Franchise
94	Ghost	1990	Single
95	The Hunger Games: Catching Fire	2013	Franchise
96	Duel in the Sun	1946	Single
97	The Hunger Games	2012	Franchise Origin
98	Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl	2003	Franchise
99	House of Wax	1953	Single
100	Rear Window	1954^	Single

The ^ indicates that a film has been re-released, which can raise its rank. When in doubt, I’ve labelled films as Single (e.g. Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs).

What can we learn from looking at the inflation-adjusted list? Well, of the top 100 movies, 49 are neither a sequel nor the start of a franchise. That’s a huge difference from the non-adjusted list.

Hollywood didn’t always make sequels from every hit.

A few observations I’ve made from this exercise:

1. Franchises are a huge part of how Hollywood makes money, not just now but historically.
2. Franchises have to start somewhere. You don’t get Minions without Despicable Me (which isn’t in the top 100).
3. Some franchises I’ve ignored (e.g. The Hobbit, Transformers) have made bank.
4. James Bond is a good business to be in.
5. There’s a reason studios don’t want you to kill the hero at the end of the movie.

Update #1 (1/29/16):

A reader asks what percentage of the top movies are sequels — that is, part of a franchise but not the origin.

On the non-inflation list, 73 of the top 100 are sequels.

Update #2 (1/30/16):

In the first list, I had mistakenly marked Gravity as a franchise. It’s a Single. So that knocks the total number of franchise movies down to 86.

In the second list, readers pointed out that several of the Single movies actually did have sequels: [The Sting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sting_II), [Love Story](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oliver%27s_Story_(film)) and [American Graffiti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/More_American_Graffiti). I’ve adjusted the number of non-franchise movies down from 52 to 49, and fixed the graphic.

Finding Dory, the sequel to Finding Nemo, comes out June 17th. Here’s the [trailer](https://youtu.be/3JNLwlcPBPI). It’s certainly going to exist, which means Finding Nemo counts as a Franchise Origin.

A person could reasonably argue that the Avatar and Frozen sequels won’t happen. But as someone who knows both the industry and the people involved, I very strongly suspect they will. I’m keeping them as Franchise Origins.

Benjamin Wallace looks at Ryan Kavanaugh and the [implosion of Relativity](http://www.vulture.com/2016/01/relativity-media-ryan-kavanaugh-c-v-r.html):

> Not yet 30 when he founded Relativity Media in 2004, he very quickly became not only a power player in Hollywood but the man who might just save it. With a dwindling number of studios putting out ever fewer movies, other than ones featuring name-brand super­heroes, Kavanaugh became first a studio financier and then a fresh-faced buyer of textured, mid-budget films. To bankers, Kavanaugh appeared to have cracked the code, having come up with a way to forecast a famously unpredictable business by replacing the vagaries of intuition with the certainties of math.

As we’ve [discussed on the podcast](http://johnaugust.com/2016/fun-with-numbers), anyone who claims to have developed a mathematical system for picking hits is either delusional or willfully deceptive. Data analysis relies on numbers, and it’s easy to cherry-pick:

> Relativity actually did look at whether to finance that Untouchables prequel, Capone Rising, with Nicolas Cage and Gerard Butler attached to star and Brian De Palma to direct. The company ended up passing, but someone close to the financial modeling recalls doing a double take at the rosiness of the Relativity algorithm’s prediction. “I read the input log for it. I thought: What’s missing? I said, ‘Where’s Snake Eyes?’” — a Cage flop. “They said, ‘Uh, we’re leaving that out.’”

What Kavanaugh was selling wasn’t an algorithm as much as a narrative: you can trust me, because look at these other people who trust me.

Say you’re a Chinese billionaire looking to invest in Hollywood. Meeting Kavanaugh, it was easy to see how successful he was. He had his name on lots of movies, some of them award-winners. He had celebrity friends and a private jet. He made huge donations to charities. And there were glowing articles portraying him as a boy-wonder maverick shaking up the system.

The thing is, almost everyone in town knew it couldn’t last. When you were selling a spec script, you wanted Relativity to bid, but you didn’t want them to win. You wanted the movie to get made, and everyone knew the clock was ticking.

Relativity filed for bankruptcy in July.

> To Hollywood’s more sophisticated power players, Relativity’s declaration of bankruptcy was less intriguing than how long Kavanaugh had been able to stave it off, reeling in money over and over again despite mountains of evidence that the product he was selling was not what he claimed it to be. “You have to give him credit for keeping it going as long as he did,” says an old hand at a major talent agency. “The people inside the system were in on the joke.”

I’ve never met Kavanaugh, and as far as I know, he hasn’t been involved in any of my movies. I see him at parties and premieres, and he’s always struck me as an interesting character: bouncing and bold, eager to be at the center of the action.

It’s tempting to dismiss Kavanaugh as an opportunist, but I think that’s unfair. From the very start, Hollywood has depended on dreamers and schemers. Many of our best films exist only because someone was brave or foolish enough to risk money on them — and charismatic enough to keep finding new money when the first batch ran out.

The fall of Relativity makes for good reading, but I wouldn’t mistake it for a cautionary tale. Right now, young upstarts are devising the next way to raise hundreds of millions to make movies. Whoever they are, we need them. We always will.