Thanks again!

Thanks!

About 2 1/2 years ago, I wrote a post about what it takes for one technology to supplant another; I was discussing the HD-DVD vs. Blu-Ray format battle, but the principles are, I think, pretty universal:

– The alternative has to be clearly superior in one or more ways — so much so that the consumer has to be willing not only to spend money on it but to learn how to use it and to put up with some of the bumps and fits of adopting a new solution.

– The alternative has to be standardized so as to achieve broad support and use, including from third-party firms.

– The alternative has to be able to be used in parallel with the consumer’s existing solution rather than require the consumer to abandon his/her current solution and all the financial, emotional, and intellectual investment in that solution.

– The alternative needs to expand in utility and functionality, and decrease in cost, until the user is willing to let go of his/her prior solution.

All those issues apply to the books vs. e-book reader discussion. I am a great fan of physical books (“p-books”) — I own about 3000 or so — and I have strong opinions about the ergonomic aspects of p-books that are not readily available in current e-book approaches. But I think that it’s just a matter of time and technology until most of advantages are either replicated by e-books or rendered irrelevant by the stark advantages of the e-book approach. But I think we’re probably 10-20 years away from that point.

One last observation, though: as someone who has been working in IT for nearly 35 years now, I’ve been hearing about the “paperless office” for decades. Hasn’t happened yet; if anything, things have gotten a bit worse. There is comfort and security in something you can actually touch and handle. ..bruce..

I mean horse riding as a main for of transportation ended because cars were far superior to horses. They were faster, could hold a family of 4 or more, rather then one or two to a hose. You could load it with stuff, rather then pulling a cart, etc…

E-Books, while good, are not so much more amazing then a regular book. Not enough to make a full change over like the horse/car analogy.

I mean how many people carry novels around with them all the time? Not many. And then, how many people would need to carry 100’s of novels around with them all the time like with an e-book? Even less.

Sure E-Books would be great high school and university textbooks and would cut down on how much kids would have to carry with them to and from school, but for the regular adult person reading at home, why would they feel the need to switch to an e-book or a paper book? There is not much of a reason to, unless we all eventually end up living in tiny 400squarefoot apartments because of overpopulation. Then having all your books on one small device would be better then having a large bookcase, but until then I don’t think the e-book fills enough of a niche to take over paper books in any way.

Also, most people by books by browsing around bookstores, looking at covers, flipping through the books, etc… It’s a lot harder to entice people to buy books with brief excerpts and tiny pictures on a screen. Also a lot of people still feel downloads & PDF’s as being transitory and generally worth less then the real thing (just look at all the pirating of music downloads that can easily be purchased for cheap).

Also, how do you lend someone a copy of a digital book? I’m sure they are all copy protected. A paper book I can lend to a friend, with an e-book you would have to lend them your whole player in order for them to read it.

And what would happen to all the Libraries?

But a horse is not a book, well sometimes if it is finely bound. The reader of literature has always been the minority.. it’s just a smaller pond and will most likely continue to shrink. I do however know many people, myself included that can spend an entire afternoon in an old dusty bookstore seeking gems, finding gold and wouldn’t trade the feeling of holding a volume of words on paper for an e-book if their life lay in the balance.

My point is yes, things have, and will continue to change. The act of creating though will always have to be done with the mind though and the rest of it; well- we’ll figure it out as we go.

And then that community will probably die, much like the horseless carriage resistance front. I think we can be reasonably confident that digital camera systems will match and surpass the quality of film within our lifetimes.